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A forecast of Commercial Real Estate Development and Investment Volumes in the Czech Republic
Nguyen, Thanh Tu ; Jandík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
This thesis attempts to forecast investment volumes of the commercial real estate market in the Czech Republic in the medium-term from 2017 to 2020, using both qualitative methods and econometric models. Fundamental analysis and chart analysis are employed while judgemental forecasts by market experts are collected. In order to find evidence of historical and upcoming commercial asset price bubbles, a state-of-the-art peak-tagging technique and chart analysis for the graph of commercial real estate capital value index are used before integrating with market specialists' opinions. Neither CRE bubble nor signal for future major downturn has been found since 2000 despite the occurance of minor overpricing periods. ARIMA and several VAR models with endogenous and exogenous variables are run to find the best quantitative forecasts. Final forecasted investment volume for the upcoming years is found by integrating experts' opinion and results from the chosen model. JEL Classification R33 Keywords commercial real estate, investment, investment volumes, prime yields, office properties, shopping centres, industrial properties, Czech Republic Author's e-mail 88176426@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail tomas.jandik@reicofunds.cz
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A forecast of Commercial Real Estate Development and Investment Volumes in the Czech Republic
Nguyen, Thanh Tu ; Jandík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
This thesis attempts to forecast investment volumes of the commercial real estate market in the Czech Republic in the medium-term from 2017 to 2020, using both qualitative methods and econometric models. Fundamental analysis and chart analysis are employed while judgemental forecasts by market experts are collected. In order to find evidence of historical and upcoming commercial asset price bubbles, a state-of-the-art peak-tagging technique and chart analysis for the graph of commercial real estate capital value index are used before integrating with market specialists' opinions. Neither CRE bubble nor signal for future major downturn has been found since 2000 despite the occurance of minor overpricing periods. ARIMA and several VAR models with endogenous and exogenous variables are run to find the best quantitative forecasts. Final forecasted investment volume for the upcoming years is found by integrating experts' opinion and results from the chosen model. JEL Classification R33 Keywords commercial real estate, investment, investment volumes, prime yields, office properties, shopping centres, industrial properties, Czech Republic Author's e-mail 88176426@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail tomas.jandik@reicofunds.cz
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The Commercial Real Estate Analysis for CEECs region
Pavlas, Michal ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Kvaček, Jan (referee)
In this thesis we examine macroeconomic factors that influenced the office real estate market in CEE countries between years 2000 and 2012. First, we describe commercial real estate indicators. Next, we create several models for four cities - Prague, Budapest, Moscow and Istanbul. We make also panel data regression for all four cities. We conclude some key determinants that influence the prime yields of office buildings in each city and finally we compare and contrast the results across all cities. Our results suggest that prime yields are most influenced by vacancy rate, gross take-up, total office stock and unemployment rate.
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